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Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season
Future start Starting this early.--Isaac829 02:17, September 16, 2012 (UTC) My predictions = 19 21 named storms, 12 13 hurricanes, 6 major hurricanes. AndrewTalk To Me 02:57, September 16, 2012 (UTC) list would prob get up to lorena being a winter storm in hawaii :D 20:24, October 14, 2012 (UTC) :13-10-8. Outlook looking better and better. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'''ropical]] 22:04, April 13, 2013 (UTC) :Season starting in a couple days :D --Isaac829 20:15, May 2, 2013 (UTC) :10 days till season starts.Isaac829 05:28, May 5, 2013 (UTC) Still thinking 14-18 storms, 6-9 hurricanes, 3-5 majors, and 100 to 120% of median ACE values. Pretty average season overall. 'Ryan1000' 16:13, May 5, 2013 (UTC) July 05E.ERICK AOI:Future Erick 10% atm.Isaac829 23:40, July 1, 2013 (UTC) :Wow, this season is wrapping up fast! For all of us that tracked Eric in 2007, you know the drill :D. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 23:41, July 1, 2013 (UTC) ::The most anticipated storm of the year is a few days from arrival. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'ropical]] 23:43, July 1, 2013 (UTC) 97E.INVEST Invested. We waited six years for this storm! Better not be a dud like your historical counterpart! - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 00:15, July 2, 2013 (UTC) I am crossing my fingers for a "Hurricane Erick". If it does become one, someone should notify SkyFury... AndrewTalk To Me 02:18, July 2, 2013 (UTC) : Yes, Sky was very upset when the last Eric was a dud. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 02:40, July 2, 2013 (UTC) :Models are showing a hurricane about this it better be.btw people I believe this will be like 2008 that both the Atlantic and Epac end with the same total of storms.Allanjeffs 06:03, July 2, 2013 (UTC) :::Now 30%. (see text below.) Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 12:06, July 2, 2013 (UTC) AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME CONDUCIVE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 MPH. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. Every other Erick failed, will this be the first Erick to not fail? I'm not sure what to expect of this. Most of the models initially take Erick to becoming a hurricane, but only a cat 1 or 2 as of now, while remaining off of Mexico. 'Ryan1000' 15:03, July 2, 2013 (UTC) Looks like Erick will be a potent hurricane imo probably be the first major.Allanjeffs 00:52, July 3, 2013 (UTC) : (Edit conflict) 50% now.Isaac829 00:54, July 3, 2013 (UTC) ::Getting close. Time to get an article ready! YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'ropical]] 02:47, July 3, 2013 (UTC) ::It still need time by Wenesday it will be ready.Allanjeffs 04:54, July 3, 2013 (UTC) ::97E's organization is real good. Currently, it has been upped to a '''70%' chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours. Come on, Erick! AndrewTalk To Me 20:35, July 3, 2013 (UTC) ::::Fantastic news, well kind of. I probably expect Erik to become a Category 3-4-ish because of the may Cat 1s were are getting right now. For more information, here is a map. Rara Hooves 20:51, July 3, 2013 (UTC) :::: ::::97E has gotten really organized now. It already looks like Tropical Depression Five-E on satellite imagery. Currently, it is at a 90% chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours. In fact, the NHC predicts our fifth tropical depression will be upon us later today. By the way, happy Independence Day to all American users! AndrewTalk To Me 12:06, July 4, 2013 (UTC) Tropical Depression Five-E Wow looks like the name Erick would not achieve hurricane status unless it intensify rapidly.The NHC is predicting a peak as a mid grade tropical storm.This name really has bad luck hope it streak end this year.Allanjeffs 15:01, July 4, 2013 (UTC) ::::Now td 5 expect Erick this afternoon or tonight.Allanjeffs 14:49, July 4, 2013 (UTC) And now the NHC has confirmed the development of Tropical Depression Five-E. Sorry, SkyFury, unless this depression pulls a Hurricane Wilma, Hurricane Felix, or Cyclone Ului type explosion, we'll likely have to wait until 2019 for a Hurricane Erick, based on the NHC forecast. AndrewTalk To Me 15:25, July 4, 2013 (UTC) :It better. Six years of waiting and Erick better pull it off. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 03:01, July 5, 2013 (UTC) Tropical Storm Erick Hope Erick fails :D --Isaac829 04:06, July 5, 2013 (UTC) Erick its pushing its way to become a hurricane.Allanjeffs 04:33, July 5, 2013 (UTC) : It's showing an eye-like feature.Isaac829 04:53, July 5, 2013 (UTC) Update: Erick is at 50 knots/998 mbar. He's already stronger than his 2007, 2001, 1989, and 1983 precedents (The 1983 Erick had no pressure reading) a.k.a. this Erick is the second strongest "Erick" ever. The storm's also brushing Mexico. Come on Erick! Please become a hurricane! AndrewTalk To Me 15:29, July 5, 2013 (UTC) Andrew,Erick would probably be a hurricane this afternoon or night,I knew it will be strong it will probably become a cat 2 or even a major.Allanjeffs 15:54, July 5, 2013 (UTC) :Erick is mad it's wiki article got merged, so it's coming back with a vengence. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'''ropical]] 16:53, July 5, 2013 (UTC) :Erick is currently at 60 kts (65 mph)/997 mbar. In terms of windspeeds, this Erick is the strongest "Erick" ever. Pressurewise, Erick has 3 mbar left to go. Also, the NHC expects a 70-kt system from the storm. AndrewTalk To Me 20:12, July 5, 2013 (UTC) ::Erick's filled out the pressure gap; he's now at 60 kts (70 mph)/993 mbar. Yep, strongest Erick ever. --HurricaneMaker99 20:55, July 5, 2013 (UTC) Oh my goodness, Erick is at 60 kts (70 mph)/993 mbar! This Erick is already strongest "Erick" ever, by pressure AND windspeed! Come on, Erick! The moment you've waited for over 30 years is hours away! AndrewTalk To Me 20:54, July 5, 2013 (UTC) : Ah, the good life Andy. He is even expected to become a hurricane, that Erick. Could he beat Princess Cosme's EPAC record as the strongest storm this year? He WILL smash her record into pieces. I have the latest info here: : Wind speed probability table, could even become a Cat 3 here. And he has Bud '12 in his DNA! What do y'all expect from Erick here? : Rara Hooves 23:23, July 5, 2013 (UTC) The 5:00 PDT advisory just came out...and no Hurricane Erick. AndrewTalk To Me 23:41, July 5, 2013 (UTC) Still not a hurricane. AndrewTalk To Me 02:49, July 6, 2013 (UTC) :Still hasn't happened yet! I'm starting to question if Erick's going to become a hurricane at all. The NHC discussion mentioned that Erick's been having trouble becoming vertically stacked... --HurricaneMaker99 10:18, July 6, 2013 (UTC) Hurricane Erick Erick, you finally did it! Good show, boy, good show! They've updated the ATCF files to reflect that Erick became a hurricane at around 06z. The new advisory intensity is 70 kts, 984 mbar. --HurricaneMaker99 14:56, July 6, 2013 (UTC) : The 30-year streak has broken! Now Erick needs an article.Isaac829 15:20, July 6, 2013 (UTC) Congrats, Erick did it! Hopefully, Mexico doesn't get hit too badly. AndrewTalk To Me 16:53, July 6, 2013 (UTC) : Told ya everyone! Rara Hooves 21:01, July 6, 2013 (UTC) ::: Well, I went away for 4 days on my Independence Day vacation (150th anniversary of the Battle of Gettysburg), and I missed out on quite a bit. Looks like this is the first Erick to not fail. Erick is expected to remain offshore of Mexico, so I doubt they'll be hit with anything more than a few waves near Cabo San Lucas. Dalila is all but dead. Looks like 94L won't hae enough time to make it before it ends up in Texas, but 95L in the Central Atlantic really worries me in the long run. The tropics are starting to pick up steam. 'Ryan1000' 00:58, July 7, 2013 (UTC) Tropical Storm Erick (2nd time) Spent ~24 hours at peak intensity before dropping back down to a TS. Currently at 55 kts/993 mbar, becoming less organized. --HurricaneMaker99 19:27, July 7, 2013 (UTC) : Erick is expected to make landfall around Baja California, as you can see here: : and I have this FRESH from le NHC: : ...ERICK BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED... TROPICAL STORM ERICK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013 1500 UTC SUN JUL 07 2013 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERICK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED : WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. So this CLEARLY means that Erick's peak is a Category 1 (FINALLY Erick is a hurricane now) and we have now officially ended the 30-year streak of "Erick being a flop." But... look what's happened! : As you can see on the photo on the right, Dalila is no longer a tropical cyclone, meaning that she has dissipated. However, advisories are still being issued for Erick and we hope that, when he makes landfall in Mexico later on today or tomorrow, he will not be as damaging as THAT EPAC storm in 2011. (you know which one I'm talking about, don't cha?) So the current information on Erick... : '''WIND SPEED:' 65 mph (55 knots) : PRESSURE: 993mb : MOVEMENT: west-northwest : Rara Hooves 19:51, July 7, 2013 (UTC) Currently crossing the 26°C isotherm today and will be entraining quite some dry air. The circulation is already choked. So, say goodbye to Erick! Six years of waiting and finally it has actually done something. We wont be seeing another Erick till 2019, which means this will be the "Erick" for another six years. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 20:45, July 7, 2013 (UTC) :Well, time to say farewell to Erick. Thanks for finally becoming a hurricane!!! And Liz, the NHC actually does not expect Erick to make a landfall. If you look closer at the forecast cone, the dots remain offshore. And impactwise, Erick will make Hurricane Paul from last year look like 2010's Hurricane Karl. AndrewTalk To Me 01:52, July 8, 2013 (UTC) As Erick weakens, the system is beginning to affect Baja California. Also, note this glaring typo in the NHC advisory: ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENNISULA LATER THIS MORNING... AndrewTalk To Me 10:44, July 8, 2013 (UTC) : It's slowly dying down, I'd say it hasn't 36 hours of life left. Ryan1000 18:14, July 8, 2013 (UTC) Tropical Depression Erick And now, Erick has become a tropical depression. Currently at 30 kts/1004 mbar, all watches and warnings have been discontinued for Mexico, and the system should be nothing but a memory shortly. AndrewTalk To Me 03:08, July 9, 2013 (UTC) The Epac will probably be quiet the rest of July with one more next storm as the Atlantic continues to produce.Allanjeffs 04:05, July 9, 2013 (UTC) Post-Tropical Cyclone Erick Erick go bye bye. --HurricaneMaker99 15:15, July 9, 2013 (UTC) Out its time to the Atlantic to shine :PAllanjeffs 15:31, July 9, 2013 (UTC) Btw I believe for the first time there have five name storms four hurricanes and no majors yet.Allanjeffs 15:33, July 9, 2013 (UTC) : Probrably, but I think we'll get a MH later on in the season. And hats off to the first Hurricane Erick in history. =) Ryan1000 16:09, July 9, 2013 (UTC) : Well, Erick will be remembered for its intensity, but impactwise, should be long forgotten. And Allan, this is not the first time a Pacific hurricane season's first four hurricanes did not become majors. To my knowledge, 2008 and 2003 also had this event occur (but the latter is arguable, as no majors occured during the season). AndrewTalk To Me 17:13, July 9, 2013 (UTC) ::: He meant the first time there were 4 hurricanes, yet no majors, out of the first five storms in the season. Well, 2008 also had that, I'll admit, but 2003 didn't have a single hurricane until Ignacio in late August, with no hurricanes out of the first 8 storms in the season, just like the 2011 AHS (but that year'' did'' have some majors). Ryan1000 20:17, July 9, 2013 (UTC) AOI:Middle of Nowhere AOI:Middle of Nowhere I'm glad that I checked the CPHC today, because there is actually something going on in the world! 0% though, predicted to die out at sea. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 22:10, July 19, 2013 (UTC) :This ain't going to develop into anything because of strong upper-level winds. If this becomes Pewa, I will be extremely surprised. --[[User:Steven09876|'Steven09876']] [[user talk:Steven09876|'(Talk to Me!!!)']] 04:44, July 20, 2013 (UTC) :Not gonna happenAllanjeffs 06:15, July 20, 2013 (UTC) ::Yeah, this is not going to become anything at all. It will just die out at sea eventually. [[User:Steven09876|'Steven09876']] [[user talk:Steven09876|'(Talk to Me!!!)']] 18:51, July 20, 2013 (UTC) :::Still near 0%. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'''ropical]] 19:10, July 21, 2013 (UTC) :::::At near 0% still. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'ropical]] 23:56, July 21, 2013 (UTC) :::::It's dead. [[User:Steven09876|'Steven09876']] [[user talk:Steven09876|'(Talk to Me!!!)]] 00:15, July 23, 2013 (UTC) 07E.GIL 99E.INVEST AOI:In the mid-Pacific As Flossie threatens Hawaii, we have a new guy here in the Eastern Pacific. It is currently at a '''10% chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours. Anyone predict our seventh tropical depression? AndrewTalk To Me 19:58, July 29, 2013 (UTC) : I don't expect Gil from this for the time being. But it could develop later on as it follows Flossie's footsteps. Ryan1000 22:18, July 29, 2013 (UTC) Up to 20% looks like Gil might come sooner than expected Ryan. It doesn't look to become anything too significant though. Gil isn't really known for becoming a major hurricane, probably because it's never been one. But still, I don't think this reincarnation of Gil will be any different. [[User:STO12|'ST✪12']] 02:21, July 30, 2013 (UTC) 99E.INVEST Well, guess what? This guy exploded overnight! Moving over favorable conditions, it has gotten much better organized. We could easily see a tropical depression in the coming few days. It currently has a 60% chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours. And as Otto said above, the name Gil is a pretty unlucky Northeastern Pacific tropical cyclone name. Using data from NOAA's Historical Hurricane Tracks tool, this what I found: Given that (using HM99's number system in Flossie's section): TD = -1 TS = 0 C1 = 1 C2 = 2 C3 = 3 C4 = 4 C5 = 5 Then: Gil 1983 = 1 Gil 1989 = 1 Gil 1995 = 0 Gil 2001 = 2 Gil 2007 = 0 Therefore, Gil's average intensity in the Northeastern Pacific is 0.6, or tropical storm intensity. AndrewTalk To Me 12:04, July 30, 2013 (UTC) : Woah, didn't expect this so soon. This could even become our first major. Ryan1000 13:03, July 30, 2013 (UTC) Tropical Depression Seven-E Dude, this thing exploded FAST! It's now a depression, and expected to become a hurricane on Friday. [[User:Steven09876|'Steven09876']] [[user talk:Steven09876|'(Talk to Me!!!)']] 14:56, July 30, 2013 (UTC) :It's forecast to weaken after it reaches a peak of 65 kt, though. Maybe this won't become the first major Hurricane Gil. And Andrew, I'm flattered that you used my system! Your math was slightly off, though: ((1+1+0+2+0)=4)/5 = 0.8. Personally I would round anything from 0.5 to 1.4 to Category 1, which would make that Gil's average intensity, but I can see why you'd keep it at TS strength since it's technically below 1.0. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 15:15, July 30, 2013 (UTC) :And going by knots (which is probably a better system), (80+75+55+85+40)/5 = 67 kts, which is a low-end Category 1. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 15:19, July 30, 2013 (UTC) :This depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today. Right now, it has a 42% chance of becoming a hurricane. AndrewTalk To Me 16:24, July 30, 2013 (UTC) :::I'm getting Eugene-ish vibes on this one. It's only expected to peak as a cat. 1, but it defies predictions and explodes. Conditions aren't that unfavorable in front of this one. Ryan1000 17:13, July 30, 2013 (UTC) :::I am sick and tire of this systems only reaching cat 1 intensity this season.Allanjeffs 18:52, July 30, 2013 (UTC) :::::UGHHHHHHHHHHH -_- You're right Al. Gill will be a flopper this season! -_-! Raraahahahromaromamagagaoohlala, want your bad romance! 18:59, July 30, 2013 (UTC) ::::::I don't know what to expect out of 7-e. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'''ropical]] 19:52, July 30, 2013 (UTC) Tropical Storm Gil Increased organization in Tropical Depression Seven-E = a 35 kt/1006 mbar Tropical Storm ''Gil! We could see a weak hurricane from this storm. AndrewTalk To Me 20:45, July 30, 2013 (UTC) Aye, I'm thinking 70-75 kts out of this one. Kiewii! 20:51, July 30, 2013 (UTC) :Earliest seventh storm of an EPAC season since Genevieve in 2008. We're running at a fairly decent clip, though I'm not that familiar with EPAC climatology. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 21:10, July 30, 2013 (UTC) ::Yes! We have Gil. I think this will become a hurricane, and maybe peak at around 80 mph. And since this is the earliest 7th named storm since 2008, I think we will have a very active season! [[User:Steven09876|'Steven09876']] [[user talk:Steven09876|'(Talk to Me!!!)']] 21:21, July 30, 2013 (UTC) I do expect a very weak category 1 hurricane, maybe a 75 mph at the most. Gil seems to be in a somewhat favorable conditions and is going to move to the northwest. Gil isn't going to be anything close to Flossie with its impact to Hawaii, but it isn't going to be a flop. [[User:STO12|'ST✪12']] 23:01, July 30, 2013 (UTC) Actually its looks like its developing an eye so this might be our first major if RI occurs.Allanjeffs 23:07, July 30, 2013 (UTC) : EPac typically has 4 storms in July, 2 hurricanes, and 1 major hurricane. Thus far we've had 3 storms form in July (4 if you count Dalila's June cross over), and 2 hurricanes. But, no majors. Like I said I have a feeling this could Eugene out and become a cat. 3 or 4. Ryan1000 01:50, July 31, 2013 (UTC) ::no, we've had 3 storms, and 1 hurricane. 2013 PHS has been nothing above average at all. It will likely become a major if it does so in August. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'''ropical]] 01:57, July 31, 2013 (UTC) ::::Well, the 2nd hurricane being Dalila, which clearly became a hurricane in July, although forming in June, I don't count it as a June hurricane. 'Ryan1000' 03:20, July 31, 2013 (UTC) Up to 50 kts but still expected to peak at 65 kts 'Kiewii! 09:10, July 31, 2013 (UTC) :I would say up to 55 or 60 kt at the 21z advisory - looks like an eye is developing '''Kiewii! 18:55, July 31, 2013 (UTC) ::I think Gil will become a hurricane tonight or tomorrow. [[User:Steven09876|'Steven09876']] [[user talk:Steven09876|'(Talk to Me!!!)']] 19:06, July 31, 2013 (UTC) ::At 5pm should be upgrade.Allanjeffs 20:22, July 31, 2013 (UTC) Hurricane Gil Now a hurricane folks! Kiewii! 20:35, July 31, 2013 (UTC) Well, that was fast! I still do not expect a major hurricane, though, despite Gil's intensity jump. 95 kts/975 mbar sounds like a good peak. AndrewTalk To Me 21:30, July 31, 2013 (UTC) : Geez, this storm strengthened faster than I predicted! I now think this will probably become a Category 2, and it might even have a shot at major hurricane status. [[User:Steven09876|'Steven09876']] [[user talk:Steven09876|'(Talk to Me!!!)']] 21:33, July 31, 2013 (UTC) ::::GILZILLA! Huzzah! We have a hurricane. This could become the first major of the season, seeing as he strengthened very quickly like Le Berto of 07. I thought it would be IMPOSSIBRU!!! Well done Gil, bro. By Friday, IMO, he sould become major. Guys? Raraahahahromaromamagagaoohlala, want your bad romance! 22:01, July 31, 2013 (UTC) Liz, Gil took 36 hours to go from tropical depression intensity to hurricane intensity. Humberto '07 took 18 hours. Paula '10 took 24 hours. Blanche '69 also took 18 hours. Finally, Ethel '60 took six hours. So Gil's intensification is fast, but not record quick. AndrewTalk To Me 23:04, July 31, 2013 (UTC) Gil intensified faster than we and NHC expected. Gil is now a hurricane, category 1. Could round out as a category 2 before it's all said and done. [[User:STO12|'ST✪12']] 23:54, July 31, 2013 (UTC) :Now at 70 kt/990 mbar, forecast peak raised to an 85 kt Category 2. I should note what forecaster Beven said regarding the intensity forecast for Gil: "THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS TWO COMPLICATING FACTORS. THE FIRST IS THAT THE FORECAST TRACK IS ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. A MORE NORTHERLY MOTION...SIMILAR TO THE GFS...WOULD BRING THE CYCLONE OVER COOLER SSTS AND INTO STRONGER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AFTER 24-48 HR. A MORE SOUTHERLY MOTION... SIMILAR TO THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE...WOULD KEEP GIL OVER WARMER WATER AND IN A LESS HOSTILE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THE SECOND FACTOR IS UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS OVER OR NOT...WITH THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX OF THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWING A DECREASED CHANCE OF CONTINUED RAPID STRENGTHENING. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS...EXCEPT AT 24 HR WHEN THE FORECAST PEAK INTENSITY IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE GUIDANCE. AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO IS THAT GIL CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY FOR 12-24 HR AND GETS SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST." Basically, Gil could peak anywhere from right here to major hurricane strength. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 03:14, August 1, 2013 (UTC) ::...and it looks like Gil's opting for the former scenario! The intensity has leveled off since last night. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 16:12, August 1, 2013 (UTC) :::Why does Gil have to be so boring? YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'''ropical]] 17:45, August 1, 2013 (UTC) ::::Now it's 75 kt/988 mbar per ATCF. Tied with Cosme for the highest winds so far this season, but it's in 4th place pressure-wise behind Cosme, Erick, and Dalila. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 18:56, August 1, 2013 (UTC) :::::...but the advisory intensity is unchanged from 8am because the convection has warmed greatly. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 22:48, August 1, 2013 (UTC) :::::cat 1 in the Epac is becoming pretty boring.Every hurricane has reach that intensity.Allanjeffs 23:09, August 1, 2013 (UTC) ::::::Ok, so the ATCF file was lowered to 70 kt, for 18z, but the 00z entry says 75 kt, 985 mbar, which would put Gil ahead of Dalila as the 3rd most intense storm of the season. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 01:32, August 2, 2013 (UTC) ::::::I hope Gil can become a Category 2, since all the hurricanes so far in the East Pacific only peaked at C1 intensity. It still has a chance to reach that category. C'mon, Gil! [[User:Steven09876|'Steven09876']] [[user talk:Steven09876|'(Talk to Me!!!)]] 04:11, August 2, 2013 (UTC) ::::::And its down to 75mph looks like Gil has lost it chance into becoming the first major of the season.I hope we don`t get in part with 2003.I believe they are only 2 years in which they were no majors in the Epac,but I doubt it will happen this year.Allanjeffs 14:38, August 2, 2013 (UTC) Tropical Storm Gil (2nd time) 60 kt/992 mbar. Avila was shocked when Gil started weakening earlier. It looked like Gil was on a slow but steady strengthening trend, but apparently not. --'''Dylan (Hurricane 99) 20:58, August 2, 2013 (UTC) Gil will get weaker from here. In 96 hours, the NHC predicts the storm will be further downgraded to a tropical depression and enter the CPAC. Also, Allan, there have been two seasons since the start of the Eastern Pacific satellite era in 1971, 1977 and 2003, in which none of the hurricanes became majors. AndrewTalk To Me 22:15, August 2, 2013 (UTC) He doesn`t deserve ts status imo should be downgrade to td pretty soon but they expect 90E to become dominant.Allanjeffs 05:37, August 3, 2013 (UTC) Gil should dissipate during the next few days. Looks like we have another hurricane peaking at C1 intensity. Geez, when are we going to get a Category 2 or a major? [[User:Steven09876|'Steven09876']] [[user talk:Steven09876|'(Talk to Me!!!)']] 15:06, August 3, 2013 (UTC) Gil's time is almost done. Didn't do much, but did attain hurricane status. [[User:STO12|'ST✪12']] 15:32, August 3, 2013 (UTC) Gil is currently at 45 kts/1001 mbar. In 72 hours, it should be in the CPAC AOR. Also, assuming Gil does not Daniel out at the last minute, the 2013 Pacific hurricane season will mark the first time since 2008 none of the season's first seven storms became major hurricanes. AndrewTalk To Me 03:08, August 4, 2013 (UTC) Tropical Depression Gil Almost gone. [[User:STO12|'ST✪12']] 14:38, August 4, 2013 (UTC) Gil is currently at 30 kts/1008 mbar. The NHC expects degeneration into a post-tropical cyclone in 24 hours. Oh well, Gil was a fail. AndrewTalk To Me 17:00, August 4, 2013 (UTC) : Well, at least it became a hurricane, but it didn't do much either way. Btw, fixed the size of the heading. Ryan1000 16:52, August 5, 2013 (UTC) : Gil strengthened! As of the 2100 UTC advisory, it is now at 30 kts/1006 mbar, compared to 25 kts/1007 mbar at its previous advisory. AndrewTalk To Me 20:51, August 5, 2013 (UTC) :: Gil strengthened? It might even have a chance at regaining tropical storm winds, but I doubt it. BTW, it is also crossing into the Central Pacific right now. [[User:Steven09876|'Steven09876']] [[user talk:Steven09876|'(Talk to Me!!!)']] 01:06, August 6, 2013 (UTC) 08E.HENRIETTE 90E.INVEST Expect Henriette pretty soon.Allanjeffs 19:17, July 30, 2013 (UTC) Currently, it is at 10%. However, Tropical Depression Seven-E will steal the system of all warm waters. I do not expect our eighth tropical depression just yet. Also, to Allan and Liz, there were many Pacific seasons where no storms exceeded Category 1 intensity. 1966 had seven hurricanes (Adele, Blanca, Connie, Dolores, Eileen, Francesca, and Helga) but they were all very weak. 1968 had twenty tropical storms but only six hurricanes (Fernanda, Joanne, Liza, Naomi, Pauline, and Rebecca), none past Category 1. For comparison, 2011 had nine fewer tropical storms, but six major hurricanes. Several other Pacific seasons (namely 1950, 1960, 1961, 1962, 1963, 1964, 1965) had this happen, but I am really sure all of those were because we did not have today's technology. AndrewTalk To Me 19:30, July 30, 2013 (UTC) : Yeah, some major hurricanes might have been missed back in the 50's and 60's. And I agree Andrew, 7-E will be the more dominant system. This could be a TS though, but won't be as strong as Gil (7-E) will be. Ryan1000 19:35, July 30, 2013 (UTC) :1968 has two major hurricanes really, Pauline and Liza. Just that some files from the NWPC and JTWc were messed up. Back on topic, 90E looks good. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'''ropical]] 19:54, July 30, 2013 (UTC) :::And it jumps to 40%!Isaac829 20:15, July 30, 2013 (UTC) :::::Woah, not bad, EPac is shaping up nicely. I think 7-E and this system could be very similar to Bud and Carlotta, respectively, of July 2006. 7-E will probrably become a powerful system, and 6-E-to be will be weaker but still worth tracking. 'Ryan1000' 20:17, July 30, 2013 (UTC) :::::Expect this to become 8E pretty soon.This one and Gil looks like twins.Allanjeffs 20:56, July 30, 2013 (UTC) :::::WTF? This was just at 10% a few hours ago! Anyway, I think this will become Henriette, but only be a weak system. [[User:Steven09876|'Steven09876']] [[user talk:Steven09876|'(Talk to Me!!!)]] 21:18, July 30, 2013 (UTC) ::::::I am actually curious about whether or not this could end up being the dominant system. Judging from this satellite view of Gil, 90E looks slightly larger. Could it overtake Gil like Erick did to Dalila? --'''Dylan (Hurricane 99) 21:30, July 30, 2013 (UTC) ::::::Depends on which one becomes stronger faster also which one is larger like you mention and how fast do they move.Allanjeffs 22:32, July 30, 2013 (UTC) Could potentially become another named storm, Henriette might be lurking around the corner. But if the system interferes with Gil it might just destroy itself and Gil. It seems to be moving at a slower pace than Gil so I don't think that'll be an issue. It's only at 40% right now, so we'll have to wait to be sure. [[User:STO12|'ST✪12']] 23:05, July 30, 2013 (UTC) Well, this invest is becoming Gil's little sister! It has upped to a 60% percent chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours. By the way, assuming this invest becomes a tropical storm tomorrow, this would make 2013 the fastest paced hurricane season in terms of named storms since 1992, which got its eighth storm (Hurricane Frank) on July 14. (Note that 1994's eighth named storm, Hurricane Li, also formed on July 31, but it was not upgraded to a tropical storm until around August 8) AndrewTalk To Me 00:08, July 31, 2013 (UTC) Down to 40%Allanjeffs 12:08, July 31, 2013 (UTC) : Maybe Gil is starting to become dominant over this one. I still would expect some development from this but not more than a minimal TS if anything. Ryan1000 13:46, July 31, 2013 (UTC) ::Yeah, looks like Gil is becoming dominant. This might develop a little bit, but I don't think it will become Henriette. ::Also, check this out! It looks like a tropical storm already. And this image is of 90E, not Gil. [[User:Steven09876|'Steven09876']] [[user talk:Steven09876|'(Talk to Me!!!)']] 19:12, July 31, 2013 (UTC) :::That image is from nearly a day ago! There might be a chance it is upgraded in the post-season though?? Kiewii! 19:15, July 31, 2013 (UTC) ::::Back up to 50%, though Gil's domination means that this invest could have trouble intensifying enough to become a tropical cyclone. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 03:16, August 1, 2013 (UTC) Remains at 50% within the next 48 hours, but has a 60% chance of formation within the next five days. Kiewii! 11:48, August 1, 2013 (UTC) : I think this could become Henriette when Gil slows down. Ryan1000 17:52, August 1, 2013 (UTC) This invest is currently at a 50% chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next five days. I believe we might see something from 90L. AndrewTalk To Me 00:37, August 2, 2013 (UTC) :That's down from 60%, though. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 01:33, August 2, 2013 (UTC) The invest has been downgraded to a 40% chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next five days. Gil is eating this system alive! AndrewTalk To Me 12:25, August 2, 2013 (UTC) Down to 30% and may not develop after all.Allanjeffs 14:39, August 2, 2013 (UTC) : Back up to 50%, and 60% for the next 5 days. As Gil continues to weaken, this one will continue to strengthen. Ryan1000 13:05, August 3, 2013 (UTC) Tropical Depression Eight-E It's now a depression. Expected to be only a weak TS. [[User:Steven09876|'Steven09876']] [[user talk:Steven09876|'(Talk to Me!!!)']] 15:09, August 3, 2013 (UTC) :Yep, only a minimal tropical storm at the most thanks to Gil's proximity. Future-Henriette is going to have to be a flop. [[User:STO12|'ST✪12']] 15:37, August 3, 2013 (UTC) :This depression is like Hurricane Carlotta in 2006. It will have to deal with the shear its big brother Gil left behind. At most, the NHC expects a 35 kt tropical storm. This is the sorriest excuse of a tropical cyclone since Tropical Storm Karina in 2008 IMO. AndrewTalk To Me 15:51, August 3, 2013 (UTC) :Still is not done,but it will probably be an epic fail.Allanjeffs 15:53, August 3, 2013 (UTC) :::Agreed. I mean, Henriette will be a failure storm; well, according to her shape and the maps anyway. This reminds me of Illeanna (sp?) and John last year. Illeanna was a cat 1 whilst John was a weak ts. Happening with gill and henriette. (ps is gil short for gillian) Raraahahahromaromamagagaoohlala, want your bad romance! 22:03, August 3, 2013 (UTC) :::Liz, Ileana and John did not interact. A better analouge would be Bud and Carlotta '06. Also, John gave some rain to Mexico. However, this depression will be nothing more than Karina 2.0. AndrewTalk To Me 22:44, August 3, 2013 (UTC) :::::It'll last a little longer than Karina did, but it shouldn't become much either way. Karina was alive for 6 hours then it died. Ryan1000 23:07, August 3, 2013 (UTC) :::::Karina in total from tropical storm to death was alived for 36 hours that mean 1 day and a half.Allanjeffs 00:14, August 4, 2013 (UTC) :::::The depression has intensified to 30 kts/1008 mbar. The NHC now expects a 55-kt tropical storm from this system. Also, assuming Gil does not Daniel out at the last minute and this depression peaks at tropical storm intensity, the 2013 Pacific hurricane season will be the first Pacific hurricane season since 2005 to have none of its first eight storms become major hurricanes. For reference, 2005 made it all the way to Jova before getting a major, and even that just barely passed the threshold. AndrewTalk To Me 03:13, August 4, 2013 (UTC :::::::I doubt this will do much at all. Well, Karina was a TS for that long (only 2 advisories). This won't explode at all. The remnants of Gil will create hostile shear that will prevent this from getting stronger than a TS, like Bud did to Carlotta in July 2006. Ryan1000 04:02, August 4, 2013 (UTC) :::::::If it wasn`t for Gil this would have become a major :(Allanjeffs 04:29, August 4, 2013 (UTC) Tropical Storm Henriette Its here and would probably become the 6 hurricane of the season,but will be a cat 1 at most.Allanjeffs 14:41, August 4, 2013 (UTC) Henriette is finally here! [[User:STO12|'ST✪12']] 14:36, August 4, 2013 (UTC) Well, we have a Fernanda (2011)-like system in the making. Henriette is currently at 35 kts/1005 mbar. It is expected to reach 60 kts before dissipating. Hurricane status is not out of the question, but there is no guarantee what will happen to this storm. AndrewTalk To Me 17:03, August 4, 2013 (UTC) Henriette is here! I think she will become either a minimal hurricane or a strong 70 mph TS. [[User:Steven09876|'Steven09876']] [[user talk:Steven09876|'(Talk to Me!!!)']] 19:43, August 4, 2013 (UTC) : Latest NHC forecast predicts another cat. 1...I'm getting real bored of all these weak EPac hurricanes. ATL is silent now that ex-Dorian is finally down and out. Ryan1000 22:03, August 4, 2013 (UTC) Henriette is getting a little stronger, 45 kts/1002 mbar. In 48 hours, we could see a 70-kt Hurricane Henriette, which is five kts below 2007's Hurricane Henriette. AndrewTalk To Me 03:30, August 5, 2013 (UTC) 2013 is very strange for the Eastern Pacific, no major hurricane and its August? Not even a cat 2 or above and its August? Henriette looks to be adding to our very long streak of category 1 hurricanes. Hopefully August will round up a major. [[User:STO12|'ST✪12']] 15:44, August 5, 2013 (UTC) : Henriette will probrably turn south of Hawaii, unlike Flossie, but it could become stronger than Gil should conditions favor it. Ryan1000 16:52, August 5, 2013 (UTC) : Henriette is at 50 kts/1002 mbar. It should become a hurricane in 24 hours, and the NHC expects peak windspeeds of 75 kts. In addition, it should survive into the CPAC as a tropical storm. Assuming Gil and Henriette both survive into the CPAC, it would mark the first time since 2009 three consecutive EPAC named storms survived into the CPAC (Felicia, Guillermo, and Hilda). AndrewTalk To Me 17:00, August 5, 2013 (UTC) : Henriette would probably be a cat 2 before everything is done,and I am expecting our major from the system that will develop near Mexico as some models are showing.Allanjeffs 19:35, August 5, 2013 (UTC) : Henriette is now at 60 kts/996 mbar. The NHC still predicts Henriette will only make it to 75 kts before weakening. AndrewTalk To Me 20:53, August 5, 2013 (UTC) ::: I agree Allan, the latest run from HWRF sees a pretty powerful hurricane coming in EPac after Gil, but it (Ivo) will remain offshore. The HWRF also shows a pretty big storm leaving Africa and becoming a powerful hurricane in the Central Atlantic several days out. Not that they're the most reliable model but it could happen. Ryan1000 21:11, August 5, 2013 (UTC) Well, Henriette is now a strong tropical storm with 65 mph winds, and slowly strengthening. I think it will peak as a strong Cat. 1 or a weak Cat. 2. I hope it becomes a Category 2, since we had way too many Category 1's in the Pacific this year! [[User:Steven09876|'Steven09876']] [[user talk:Steven09876|'(Talk to Me!!!)']] 01:11, August 6, 2013 (UTC) August Is here, but aside from Gil crossing over, nothing's new. Ryan1000 06:30, August 1, 2013 (UTC) The NHC is now issuing experimental GTWO's which predict a tropical cyclone's formation probability in the next five days. AndrewTalk To Me 16:24, August 1, 2013 (UTC) AOI: West of Gil AOI: West of Hurricane Gil This AOI popped up on the TWO. It has a 20% chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next five days. AndrewTalk To Me 00:37, August 2, 2013 (UTC) I believe its 91E now.Allanjeffs 02:20, August 2, 2013 (UTC) : This could become Pewa after moving into the Central Pacific. If it develops before reaching the CPac (which I don't think will happen), it could become Henriette (or Ivo if the above invest develops). [[User:Steven09876|'Steven09876']] [[user talk:Steven09876|'(Talk to Me!!!)']] 04:16, August 2, 2013 (UTC) Allan, Wunderground does not have this invest put up yet on its tracking map. However, it has a 40% chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next five days. Also, it looks like this AOI could become a re-Lala (1984), Iniki (1992), Li (1994), and/or Lana (2009) - all four of those storms begun as EPAC tropical depressions, but were named in the CPAC AOR. AndrewTalk To Me 12:33, August 2, 2013 (UTC) : The only invest 91 is ex-Dorian off of Florida. This one isn't an invest yet, but it could be one very soon. Ryan1000 14:03, August 2, 2013 (UTC) ::: Now it's CPac bound, and at 20%. Ryan1000 13:06, August 3, 2013 (UTC) ::: 0% outttttttttAllanjeffs 00:11, August 4, 2013 (UTC) ::: This AOI is off the TWO! AndrewTalk To Me 17:05, August 4, 2013 (UTC) Eerie Comparison Okay, I know this section is slightly off-topic, but it relates to Eastern Pacific activity. Anyway, assuming 92E becomes a tropical storm and Mexico, I would just like to point out the following comparisons between 2007 and 2013 so far: *Both seasons had its first two storms form in May (and what is even creepier is that it is the same two names!) *Both seasons started off with a "Tropical Storm Alvin". *In both seasons, the storm named Alvin stayed out to sea. *In both seasons, the storm named Alvin reached a peak of 1003 mbar (however, the 2007 "Alvin" had peak winds of 40 mph, whereas the 2013 "Alvin" had peak winds of 50 mph). *In both seasons, the storm named Barbara formed in the last week of May. *In both seasons, the storm named Barbara made a landfall in Mexico. *Both seasons' third storm was a "Hurricane Cosme". If anyone has additional comparisons, or any comments and/or questions about the comparisons or even this section in general, please feel free to leave them below. AndrewTalk To Me 21:49, May 27, 2013 (UTC) : If only the Atlantic was in the same boat lol. We haven't even had Andrea yet there, but it's possible, according to GFS at ~284 hours, we could see Andrea pull a Barry '07. Ryan1000 00:26, May 28, 2013 (UTC) ::Barbara was a hurricane ................ YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'''ropical]] 04:49, June 24, 2013 (UTC) :::I believe this comparison was made prior to Barbara even being named, so yeah. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 06:55, June 24, 2013 (UTC) :::No, I last updated my list when Barbara was a tropical storm. AndrewTalk To Me 17:59, June 24, 2013 (UTC) Retirements at a glance Now is the time to do this: *Alvin - 0% - No. *Barbara - 0% - No. *Cosme - 0% - No. *Dalila - 0% - No. *Erick - -∞% - No. *Flossie - 10% - Wasn't that bad. *Gil - 0% - No. *Henriette - 0% - No. Isaac829 19:29, August 5, 2013 (UTC) ERMAHGERD!! My predictions. * Alvin? #No. * Barbara? #No. * Cosme #No. * Dalila? Hey there Dalila, hows it like near Mexico? A rather weak Category 1 not doing anything but spin fish? #NO. * Erick? #No. More to come... Rara Hooves 20:28, July 4, 2013 (UTC) : I would personally still wait a little bit on this, unless Barbara turns out to be something big for Mexico. 'Ryan1000' 01:05, May 29, 2013 (UTC) Now that we have a reasonable number of storms, I will post my predictions: #Alvin - 0% - Try again, Mr. Seville! #Barbara - 1% - Being the easternmost landfalling hurricane and causing four fatalities as well as $1 million (2013 USD) in damage is not enough, especially by Mexico's standards. #Cosme - 0.1% - Three fatalities will not convince Mexico to retire this name. #Dalila - 0.05% - The fact Dalila did not kill anyone hurts its chances. #Erick - 0.2% - 0.1% for the one fatality reported, the other 0.1% is to show my respect towards Erick for finally becoming a hurricane. #Flossie - 2% - Hawaii got a huge scare from the system, but it was not that bad at all in the end. #Gil - TBA - Still Active #Henriette - TBA - Still Active AndrewTalk To Me 17:20, July 9, 2013 (UTC) Here's my predictions! * Alvin - 0% - Hell no. * Barbara - 1% - 4 deaths and $1 million in damage ain't gonna do it. * Cosme - 0.5% - 3 deaths are not enough. * Dalila - 0% - Nope. * Erick - 0.6% - 0.5% for affecting Mexico, the other 0.1% is for Erick finally becoming a hurricane. * Flossie - 2% - Affected Hawaii, but it wasn't that bad. * Gil - 0% - Fishie. * Henriette - ? - Still active [[User:Steven09876|'Steven09876']] [[user talk:Steven09876|'(Talk to Me!!!)]] 19:03, July 20, 2013 (UTC) ---- '''STO12's Predictions: *ALVIN: 0% No impact whatsoever, no retirement here. *BARBARA: 20% Not enough impact to Mexico to cause a retirement. *COSME: 5% Far from land impact, no retirement for Cosme. *DALILA: 5% A weak hurricane, but off the coast of any land mass, no retirement. *ERICK: 15% Caused some impact to the Mexican coast, but not enough of an impact to create a retirement. *FLOSSIE: 10% Caused rare but minimal impact to Hawaii. Flossie isn't really retirement worthy. *GIL: ? Predictions for Gil will be released once the storm has dissipated. *HENRIETTE: ? Predictions for Henriette will be released once the storm has dissipated. [[User:STO12|'ST✪12']] 14:39, August 4, 2013 (UTC) ---- Ryan Grand Speaks: *Alvin - 0% - Sorry, which one was Alvin again? *Barbara - 4% - Deserves some respect for it's impacts in Mexico, but they hardly ever retire names... *Cosme - 1% - Caused indirect impacts due to it's massive size, but enough to retire? Nah. *Dalila - 1% - See Cosme. *Erick - 2% - 1% for the death, 1% for finally becoming a hurricane. *Flossie - 10% - Some impacts on Hawaii, but nothing too severe. *Gil - 0% - Turned out to be a fish. *Henriette - ?? - Not sure, but I can't rule out Hawaii completely. Those are my calls. Ryan1000 16:14, July 28, 2013 (UTC) I'm just gonna give every single storm 42%, because we have absolutely zero idea what the WMO will do in the EPAC. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 20:28, July 28, 2013 (UTC) : Yeah, some EPac retirements are completely random (Knut of 1987 taking the cake), but I hope the WMO is more serious with storms from now on. I could see Flossie getting retired if it is severe enough for Hawaii. Ryan1000 00:15, July 29, 2013 (UTC) ::I'm not so sure if Flossie will make landfall anymore because the NHC predicted for her to make landfall on a previous prediction, then she was predicted to veer north on the next prediction (but will still make landfall), and on the latest advisory image it looks like it will brush the state instead of making landfall. Jeffrey was here What's your iOS operating system? 06:43, July 29, 2013 (UTC) ::Alvin: 0% fish ::Barbara:2% death nor damage was enough ::Cosme:0% not effects in any place aside from waves ::Dalila: 0% She was one of the smallest tc in the Epac and his bro Cosme was one of the biggest aside from that nothing at all. ::Erick 0% nop another fish ::Flossie:5% damage in Hawaii was from minimal to non existant.not even a landfall occur ::Gil??? So far looks like a fish. ::Allanjeffs 13:38, August 1, 2013 (UTC)